AIG Construction Index. Australian Industry Group releases this data monthly on the fifth business day after the end of the month. The index is based on surveys of about 200 construction companies that are asked to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50 indicates industry expansion and below indicates contraction. It has a low impact on markets.
AIG Manufacturing Index. This index is released monthly by Australian Industry Group on the first business day after the end of the month. The index is based on surveys of about 200 manufacturers and asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50 indicates industry expansion and below indicates contraction.It has a low impact on markets.
ANZ Job Advertisements. ANZ release this data monthly, about 7 days after the month ends. It measures the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities. It has a low impact on markets.
Annual Federal Budget Release. The Australian Government’s budget for the year includes expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives and planned investments. Domestic government spending and borrowing levels can have a significant impact on the economy – increased spending generates work for contractors and creates jobs, while borrowing levels impact the nation’s credit rating. It has a large impact on markets.
Building Approvals. The Australian Bureau of Statistics(ABS) releases this data monthly, about 30 days after the month end. The report measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued and is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining approval is a requisite for construction. Construction has a broad economic impact.Jobs are created for construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired and various services are purchased by the builder. It has a low impact on markets.
Cash Rate. The Reserve Bank Board releases this rate on the first Tuesday of the month, excluding January. It generally has high market impact. The cash rate is the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBA Rate Statement, which is focused on the future. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation. Traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases a statement which is among the primary tools the Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. Until December 2007 the statement was only issued when the cash rate was changed. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.
CB Leading Index. Conference Board release this index monthly, about 50 days after the month ends. It measures change in the level of a composite index based on seven economic indicators. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. It represents the combined reading of seven economic indicators related to money supply, building approvals, profits, exports, inventories and interest rate spreads. If the actual is greater than forecast the market impact is mild.
Commodity Prices.The reserve Bank of Australia releases data on the change in the selling price of exported commodities. The data is releasedmonthly on the first business day after the end of month. Commodities account for over half of Australia’s export earnings. The data is a leading indicator of the nation’s trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income. The average selling price of the nation’s main commodity exports are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling. In general it has low impact on markets.
The Conference Board Index (m/m). This index is a combined reading of seven economic indicators related to money supply, building approvals, profits, exports, inventories and interest rate spreads.It measures the change in the level of a composite index based on seven economic indicators. The index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. Generally the index’s market impact is low. It gets released monthly by The Conference Board Inc, about 50 days after the month ends.
Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The Australian Bureau of Statistics release this index quarterly, about 25 days after the quarter ends. Although this data is late relative to inflation data from other countries, it is the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create a large market impact. Consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates due to their inflation containment mandate. The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling. If the actual is greater than forecast it has a high market impact.
Employment Change. The Australian Bureau of Statistics measure the change in the number of employed people during the previous month and release this data monthly, about 15 days after the end of the month. The data’s importance and its earliness means it can have a large market impact. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. This is a very high impact indicator.
GDP. The Australian Bureau of Statistics release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate quarterly, about 65 days after the quarter ends. The GDP rate measures change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. If the actual figure greater is than forecast, it generally has a high impact on markets.
House Price Index (HPI q/q). This index is a leading indicator of the housing industry’s heath because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. The House Price Index measures change in the selling price of homes in the nation’s eight state capitals. The index is released quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics after 75 days from the end of quarter.
Melbourne Institute Leading Index. Also called the Westpac Leading Index or MI Indexes of Economic Activity, the index is released monthly on the third Wednesday after the month ends. It measures the change in the level of a composite index based on nine economic indicators. The nine economic indicators are related to consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, unemployment expectations, hours worked, commodity prices and interest rate spreads. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. Generally, it has a low market impact.
MI Inflation Expectations. Released by the Melbourne Institute monthly, usually the second Thursday after the month ends, the index measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months. Full reports are only available to Melbourne Institute subscribers. Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise. If the actual is greater than forecast it has a mild market impact.
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The Reserve Bank of Australia release their minutes 11 times per year, two weeks after the Cash Rate is announced. The minutes are a detailed record of the Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. It has a medium impact on markets.
NAB Business Confidence. NAB release this data monthly, about 11 days after the month ends. The index measures the level confidence of 350 surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry. Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. There’s a quarterly and monthly version of this survey – although the monthly survey is more timely and tends to have a greater market impact, the quarterly version has a larger sample size and additional questions regarding expectations. The index is a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. If the actual greater than forecast it has a medium impact on markets.
Private Sector Credit. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases this data monthly on the last business day of the following month. It measures the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are positively correlated – consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money. If the actual is greater than forecast, it has a mild impact on markets.
Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin. Containing relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables and detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint, the bulletin is released quarterly by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Its market impact tends to mild since much of the information has been released previously.
Retail Sales. The Australian Bureau of Statistics measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level and release this data monthly, about 35 days after the month ends. This is the earliest look at consumer spending data which is the primary gauge of consumer spending – accounting for the majority of overall economic activity. When actual numbers are greater than forecast, the market impact is mild.
Trimmed Mean CPI. Released by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the index measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items. Released quarterly, about 25 days after the quarter ends, the index represents the underlying inflation trend through component weighting and anomaly exclusion. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates due to their inflation containment mandate. If the actual is greater than forecast, it has a high impact on markets.
Trade Balance (International Trade in Goods and Services).The Australian Bureau of Statistics release this data monthly, about 35 days after the month ends. It measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because overseas traders must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices for domestic manufacturers. If actual is greater than forecast, the impact on markets is moderate.
Unemployment Rate. Measuring the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month, the data is released monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, about 15 days after the end of month. Although, it is generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour market conditions. If the actual comes out less than forecasted, it is a high impact indicator for markets.
Westpac Consumer sentiment. Westpac release the index data monthly on the second or third Wednesday. The market impact tends to be mild but varies depending onthe data set. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The survey asks 1,200 consumers to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment and climate for major purchases. If the actual index is better than forecast then there is a mild market impact.